One Last Shot

You're down one, with ten seconds to go, on the road, in game 7 of the Finals. Out of anyone in the NBA, who do you want with the ball in their hands?
    It seems like a simple enough question. But there's really no simple answer.
    Just off the top of my head, Kobe and LeBron come to mind. Anyone who drops 81 in a game and won three titles (yes, i know Shaq was there, the rings count all the same) is a superstar. And if you watched LeBron in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, there need be no explanation as to why he's up here. If you didn't, well, you missed out. Amidst triple teams and one of the most vaunted defenses in the league, he scored 25 STRAIGHT POINTS to win the game. He also had 48 overall. The two are without question the best players in the league. The best individual players, at least.
    With these two, it's a matter of having to score when everyone on the other team knows you're getting the ball. Which is exactly what we're looking for. After them, it's extremely difficult to judge what you want in this situation. Do you want the leader of the team, like the next four? Or do you simply want a shooter?
    Chris Paul is a leader, the best point guard in the league, and may very well win MVP, but is simply not on the level of those two- and i think David West would take the game winner for the Hornets.  Give CP3 (lame nickname by the way) a few years and he'll become the best player in the association, but not yet.
    Tim Duncan is the most accomplished player of our generation (along with Shaquille O'Neal) and quite possibly the most unselfish star in the history of the league, but he's more of a player who fits nicely in with a well built, defensive team. Not to take anything away from that, it wins championships- but it's more impressive to win when you're carrying the team on your back.
    Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard are both terrors on the glass. KG is a stellar defender, and Howard is the best big in the league with no question, but neither of them are getting the rock with seconds left. I think that honor goes to Paul Pierce or Ray Allen on the C's, and Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis on the Magic.
    So although being a leader gives you confidence with the game on the line, you need to be able to take jumpers or drive with a swarming, collapsing D. So who has the best J in the game? Peja? Kyle Korver? Ray Allen? Listen, nothing against these guys, but if you watched any of them in the playoffs before, escpecially Peja with the Kings, it's clear that they crack under pressure. So what we're looking for is someone who's a leader, unafraid to take the Game Winner, but also has a good enough offensive game to actually hit it. Which leaves me with four people in my mind: LeBron, Kobe, AI, and Baron Davis.
    I may be biased with the Answer, but I grew up watching him hit way too many cold blooded, game winning shots to leave him off of any list like this. And Baron was an absolute assassin in the first round against the top seeded Mavs last year. He couldn't be stopped. But the major problem with my list of four is there's no statistical evidence; it's all anecdotal. So I asked myself, are there stats for scoring in crunch time and game winning shots? Because that way, you can make this argument not based entirely on opinion. Stats don't lie, most of the time.

    So I found some stats. Take the number of points a player scores last five minutes of every game that's within 5, plus any overtime they've been to, and figure out their points per 48 minutes of "clutch time". The top two are, not surprisingly, and backing up popular opinion, are LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, with 57 and 52 points per 48 minutes of clutch time, respectively. Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili and Michael Redd round out the top five. Some interesting things on this list: Baron Davis and Allen Iverson both rank behind such names as my boy Andre Iguodala, Hedo Turkoglu, Ben Gordon, and Jamal Tinsley. Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan are actually near the bottom.

    So what does this all mean? Well, some people pick their MVP by who meant the most to their team. And I think, if you measure by that criteria, KG would win. His presence completely bolstered that defense to the extreme. Some people pick their MVP by the best player on the best team. Depending on whom you talk to, that would mean Kobe if the Lakers win the West or Chris Paul if the Hornets pull it out. Some would even contend that the Celtics are the best team, so KG gets another check mark. Some people are even suggesting that because Kobe has had such an illustrious career, he deserves it because he hasn't had an MVP yet.

    I disagree with all of that criteria. Just because a player means a lot to a very good team, like KG, to give it to him for that suggests that Ray Allen or Paul Pierce are useless. We all saw what happened with KG was a one man gang in Minnesota. And best player on best team is just stupid- it's not a superior player's fault if the team he's on isn't good enough to support him. The best player best team method is a cop out. It's the safe pick. Nobody is going to call you out for picking the best player on the best team. But they should. And the lifetime achievement award criterion.. well.. that just cheapens the award. It makes it more of a pity party, and I doubt Kobe would enjoy the award if he knew that the only reason he got it was because everyone felt sorry for him.

    That's why LeBron James is the MVP. He carries a terrible team (KG couldn't do that in Minnesota for the past few years) on his back, he puts up good numbers, and they're making the playoffs ONLY because of him. But that's not why he's the MVP. If you had to bet your life on one player to get the ball with seconds left on the clock, when the game's on the line, who would it be?

The MVP.

Comments

[jo jo]

yo kid you got it all right mad props to the predicts